Briefing
Identification of Swing Voters
We analyze the voters who could decide the election.
Updated 2024-Sep-27 10:34
Shoes visible behind a voting booth.
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Jack Robbins the son of Tim Robbins and Susan Sarandon humorously mocks himself and other children of famous parents in a series of comedy videos.
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He proceeded to revisit the role star in the 1961 World War II drama The Guns of Navarone and enjoy a lengthy career in both prime time television and music.
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About 18 percent of American voters have not made up their minds between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump recent polls suggest.
Some members of this 18 percent say they lean toward one of the two candidates without having a firm preference.
Others say they don’t lean toward either. Yet history suggests that many of these Americans will vote and will ultimately support the Democratic or Republican nominee.
Once they do they will probably decide the presidential election. In today’s newsletter I’ll offer a portrait of the country’s uncommitted voters.
Young moderates of colorA major problem for President Biden’s re election campaign was his weakness among young voters and voters of colors.
A Democratic candidate typically needs to win these groups in a landslide and Biden wasn’t on pace to do so.
Harris is faring much better which is why the race seems virtually tied. Nate Silver’s forecast model calls Trump a slight favorite because Trump is stronger in swing states than he is nationwide while The Economist’s model considers Harris’s national lead large enough to make her a slight favorite.
If you assume that most swing voters are disaffected liberals because of their youth and diversity however you will be wrong.
For one thing uncommitted voters are slightly more likely to be male than decided voters are. Most also do not have a four year college degree and working class voters tend to be more socially conservative.
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Photograph of dyed chrysanthemums arranged in different ways. Credit goes to Florent Tanet for the image.
Set design is by Nicholas William White. Columns by Thomas Friedman and Bret Stephens are presented here.
